The Bubble Tracker is LLM Watch’s living dashboard for AI infrastructure ambition versus cash-flow reality. Capex announcements move markets; durable revenue and adoption move slower — we keep both in view.
What we track
- Hyperscaler and lab capex commitments (cloud campuses, GPU clusters, “Stargate-scale” programs).
- Enterprise revenue and retention signals that substantiate — or contradict — the spend.
- Revisions from banks and vendors when the gap widens.
How to read a tracker update
Every update should answer: what was promised, what was spent or booked, what revenue or usage offsets it, and what remains unverified. No chart without a source.
Related analysis lives in Markets and The Weekly Take.
Live tracker Updated: 2026-09-21T06:41:35Z Hyperscaler capex guidance keeps climbing toward roughly $730B-$933B in 2026-era spend, but the clearest demand-side signals in the last two weeks come from Anthropic and OpenAI adoption/revenue data, not from the infrastructure spenders themselves.
AI Bubble Tracker
Entity
Capex / spend signal
Revenue / demand signal
Gap read
Microsoft ~$175B 2026 capex guidance midpoint; $35B reported in latest quarter n/d disclosed AI-specific revenue split; Azure AI growth cited qualitatively Spend disclosed in hard numbers; AI-specific revenue attribution remains opaque
Alphabet ~$195-205B 2026 capex guidance; $24B reported in latest quarter n/d disclosed AI-specific revenue split; Search/Cloud AI growth cited qualitatively Capex guidance far more concrete than any AI-attributable revenue figure
Amazon ~$220B 2026 capex guidance, highest among the four n/d disclosed AI-specific revenue split; AWS growth cited qualitatively Largest capex commitment paired with the least granular AI revenue disclosure
Meta ~$130-145B 2026 capex guidance; $19.4B reported in latest quarter n/d disclosed AI-specific revenue split; ad-efficiency gains cited qualitatively Spend rising sharply while AI monetization remains bundled into core ad business
7-company hyperscaler/AI buildout set $657.1B trailing-4Q capex; $213.7B latest quarter (per Supercycle tracking) n/d aggregate AI-specific revenue disclosed across the group Capex tracked in granular detail; matching revenue evidence is largely absent
OpenAI n/d direct capex disclosed; reliant on partner/cloud infrastructure deals ~$40B annual revenue run rate (Rhodium, Sept 2026) Revenue run rate growing but still a fraction of partner capex committed on its behalf
Anthropic n/d direct capex disclosed; reliant on partner/cloud infrastructure deals ~$65B annual revenue run rate; 43.8% enterprise adoption share (Ramp, Sept 9 2026) Leads OpenAI on both revenue run rate and enterprise adoption in latest reads
Combined 7-firm capex forecast (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, CoreWeave, SpaceX) ~$933B projected 2026 capex (JPMorgan), up from $443B in 2025 n/d unified revenue benchmark exists at this aggregate level More than doubling capex forecast has no equivalently scaled revenue benchmark yet