AI Bubble Tracker

The Bubble Tracker is LLM Watch’s living dashboard for AI infrastructure ambition versus cash-flow reality. Capex announcements — cloud campuses, GPU clusters, “Stargate-scale” programs — move markets and headlines. Enterprise revenue and durable adoption move slower. This page is where those two clocks meet.

What you will see here

• Capex commitments disclosed by major labs and cloud partners, updated weekly.

• Revenue and adoption signals from public filings, earnings calls, and credible surveys.

• A simple gap index: narrative spend versus evidenced demand.

Weekly long-form that cites this tracker

Every week, The Weekly Take and Markets briefs argue from this page — not from vibe. If a chart or gap index is provisional, we say so in the piece.

Methodology (v0.1)

We prefer primary filings and named datasets over anonymous briefings. Estimates are labeled as estimates. When vendors refuse granularity, we say so. The goal is a citable number — not a vibe.

Cadence

Weekly refresh every Monday UTC, with flash notes when a material disclosure lands mid-week. Interactive charts ship as the dataset stabilizes; until then, the Tracker publishes structured briefs under the Markets category.